Combining Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Laboratory-Specific Performance Guarantees in Copy Number Variation Detection
This study addresses the challenges in clinically validating copy number variation (CNV) detection from targeted amplicon sequencing, where performance is hindered by amplification artifacts, heterogeneity from protocol mismatches, and limited sample sizes. The authors propose a hybrid framework integrating Bayesian and frequentist inference: Bayesian posterior functionals are employed to assess performance, with squared loss modeled via a Gamma distribution to construct admissible intervals achieving valid frequentist coverage. Innovatively, the method incorporates a label-free mechanism to exclude CNV-positive outliers, small-sample regularization, and a log-model-evidence–based stratification strategy to effectively mitigate non-exchangeable noise. Evaluated on two amplicon panels, the approach achieves single-digit mean absolute coverage error across all genes under both protocol-matched and mismatched conditions, substantially outperforming conventional Bayesian methods—for instance, reducing ERBB2 error by over 60%.