Shift Aware Transfer Learning with Adaptive Dual-Encoder Fusion for PM Forecasting in Data-Limited Environments
This study addresses the challenges of PM2.5 prediction and negative transfer arising from data scarcity and distribution shift by proposing a Distribution-Aware Adaptive Dual-Encoder Transfer Framework. The method adaptively integrates a pretrained source encoder with target-specific representations to preserve target information while effectively mitigating negative transfer. Validated through SHAP interpretability analysis and ablation studies, the model achieves an MSE of 21.66 and an R² of 0.8739, significantly outperforming baseline methods. These results demonstrate the framework’s efficacy in overcoming data limitations and statistical discrepancies, establishing a novel paradigm for cross-domain air quality forecasting.