Diverse Geometries, Frozen Weights: Robust Heterogeneous Treatment-Effect Estimation via Causal Expert Ensembles
This study addresses the challenge of determining appropriate inductive biases for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data characterized by overlap violations and imbalance. To this end, we propose the GeoACE framework, which introduces an outcome-independent, overlap-aware projection expert (O-Phi-ACE) that integrates anchor correction with complementary geometric diversity modeling. Robust aggregation is achieved through inverse doubly robust weighting coupled with a leakage-free frozen-weight ensemble strategy. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method significantly reduces PEHE errors and achieves leading rankings across most benchmarks, thereby validating the effectiveness of both the diversified expert pool and the lossless aggregation strategy.