Electric Potential Patterns Forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere with Deep Learning Techniques
This study addresses the challenge of real-time, accurate prediction of the spatial structure of the high-latitude ionosphere in the Southern Hemisphere by introducing conditional probabilistic diffusion models into full-spatial-structure forecasting for the first time. Methodologically, a U-Net-based architecture is employed to integrate multi-source data from SuperDARN radars and L1 solar wind observations, with systematic comparisons conducted between deterministic baselines and diffusion models regarding long-term forecasting performance. The results demonstrate that this probabilistic generative framework significantly outperforms conventional deterministic approaches in extended-horizon predictions and highly dynamic scenarios, such as severe geomagnetic storms. Consequently, this work establishes a novel paradigm for operational space weather forecasting.