Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?

2026-03-22

AI Summary

Current projections regarding the environmental impact of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) are generally overly pessimistic. This study presents the first systematic application of the Abernathy–Utterback (A-U) innovation diffusion model to the GAI domain, integrating technology lifecycle analysis with environmental impact modeling to examine the dynamic evolution of GAI’s carbon footprint under performance optimization and shifting business models. The findings indicate that while GAI is unlikely to become fully “green,” its actual ecological cost may be substantially lower than currently anticipated, contingent critically on the prevailing business models adopted. This work underscores the synergistic role of technological innovation and economic mechanisms in mitigating GAI’s environmental burden, offering a theoretical foundation for advancing sustainable AI development.

Technology Category

• Machine Learning: Efficient ML / Green AI
• Philosophy and Ethics of AI: Artificial General Intelligence
• Humans and AI: Other Foundations of Human Computation & AI

Application Category

• Social Networks and Social Media: Generative AI / large language models and their impact on social systems
• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economic ramifications for generative AI infrastructure and applications
• Responsible Web: Sustainability and climate impact of web technologies

Abstract

The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) has led to alarming predictions about its environmental impact. However, these predictions often overlook the fact that the diffusion of innovation is accompanied by the evolution of products and the optimization of their performance, primarily for economic reasons. This can also reduce their environmental impact. By analyzing the GAI ecosystem using the classic A-U innovation diffusion model, we can forecast this industry's structure and how its environmental impact will evolve. While GAI will never be green, its impact may not be as problematic as is sometimes claimed. However, this depends on which business model becomes dominant.

Problem

• generative AI
• environmental impact
• innovation diffusion
• sustainability
• AI ecosystem

Innovation

• innovation diffusion
• generative AI
• environmental impact
• A-U model
• sustainable AI