Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
fossil gas dependence
energy security
consumer protection
gas price volatility
import reliance
Accelerating fossil gas independence in Europe
🤖 AI Summary
Europe’s reliance on imported fossil gas entails substantial economic costs and exposes electricity prices to significant volatility, yet a comprehensive quantification of these impacts remains lacking. This study addresses this gap by integrating coordinated constraints on natural gas use across the power, industry, and buildings sectors within a high-resolution, system-wide European energy optimization model to assess the economic viability and feasibility of reducing import dependence. The results indicate that Europe could halve its annual gas consumption—aligning demand with domestic production of approximately 20 billion cubic meters—at an estimated cost of around €16 billion per year. However, even modest residual gas use continues to dominate marginal electricity pricing, thereby undermining consumer protection against global price fluctuations and highlighting the urgent need for complementary policy measures to mitigate price transmission risks.
📝 Abstract
Recent price shocks have prompted calls to curb Europe's dependence on fossil gas imports, but the cost of this goal, and the consumer protection it affords, remain uncertain. Here we address this gap by imposing constraints on fossil gas supply in a European energy system model that co-optimises abatement across all gas uses at high spatio-temporal resolution. Cutting import reliance proves economically compelling: through savings in power generation and low-temperature heat in industry and buildings, Europe can halve its natural gas consumption for 16bnEUR/a, aligning demand with the continent's production capacity of 200 bcm. This extra system cost is comparable to what consumers spend today on a 2 EUR/MWh rise in gas import prices. However, this sovereignty alone does not shield consumers from global gas price volatility: we find that, even at a small share of the mix, gas remains dominant in shaping the marginal electricity price, leaving consumers exposed without additional policy measures.
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
energy system modeling
gas import dependence
spatio-temporal resolution
co-optimization
price volatility
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