Evidence Before Expansion: Reuse, Spawn, or Defer in Lifelong Expert Pools

📅 2026-08-20
📈 Citations: 0
✨ Influential: 0
📄 PDF
🤖 AI Summary
研究提出一种决策层方法,通过统计意义的重用、生成或延迟策略,解决流系统中专家模型池的维护问题。
📝 Abstract
Streaming systems that maintain a pool of expert models must repeatedly decide whether to reuse an existing expert for arriving data, spawn a new one, or defer. We present a decision layer that makes all three outcomes statistically meaningful. Reuse and spawn are posed as one-sided sequential hypotheses on a conditional (mechanism-level) discrepancy, separated by an indifference zone; defer is exactly the state in which neither betting e-process has accumulated sufficient evidence. We prove finite-time anytime validity for the observable surrogate discrepancy of a predictable discriminator sequence, and an unconditional one-sided transfer to the population quantity in which each side's slack is the excess risk of a single discriminator; an empirically observed downward-bias regularity makes the spawn side exactly conservative. Recency without sacrificing the guarantee is obtained by a restarted e-detector: a bank of unwindowed betting supermartingales at geometrically spaced restart times (O(log t) memory), with the error budget spent over restart instances, which preserves lifetime anytime validity; spending over expert-creation order likewise controls multiplicity for unboundedly many experts. On synthetic multi-concept streams, Electricity, Covertype, and the recurrence-heavy INSECTS benchmark, the instance-accounted restarted bank achieves zero false spawns and zero false reuses after switches and matches or exceeds the retired windowed heuristic (INSECTS-reoccurring accuracy 0.675), making the deployed algorithm and the guaranteed algorithm one and the same.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

lifelong learning
expert models
statistical significance
reuse
spawn
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

decision layer
one-sided sequential hypotheses
restarted e-detector
anytime validity
lifetime anytime validity
🔎 Similar Papers
No similar papers found.
K
Kentaro Oda
Center for Management of Information Technologies, Kagoshima University