Estimating the Number of Street Vendors in New York City

2024-06-01

AI Summary

This study addresses the systematic undercounting of informal street vendors in New York City—particularly by the American Community Survey (ACS)—and the lack of reliable estimates due to incomplete licensing coverage and census data biases. Method: To overcome these limitations, the research integrates field-based stratified sampling, surveys of both licensed and unlicensed vendors (via relief distribution), licensing policy analysis, and ZIP-code-level spatial modeling. Grounded in point process theory, it establishes a rigorous sampling framework and applies ratio estimation to infer citywide totals. Contribution/Results: The study estimates approximately 23,000 street vendors citywide—including 20,500 mobile food vendors and 2,300 general merchandise vendors—with one-third concentrated in just six ZIP codes. It provides the first empirically grounded, statistically principled quantification of NYC’s informal street vending sector, offering a replicable statistical paradigm and empirical benchmark for estimating urban informal economies.

Technology Category

• Planning, Routing, and Scheduling: Scheduling under Uncertainty
• Game Theory and Economic Paradigms: Auctions and Market-Based Systems
• Constraint Satisfaction and Optimization: Satisfiability Modulo Theories

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: The sharing economy
• Security and Privacy: Large-scale security measurements
• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Efficient manipulation of static and dynamic Web-related graphs

Abstract

We estimate the number of street vendors in New York City. We first summarize the process by which vendors receive licenses and permits to legally operate in New York City. We then describe a survey that was administered by the Street Vendor Project while distributing Coronavirus relief aid to vendors operating in New York City both with and without a license or permit. Finally, we calculate the total number of vendors using ratio estimation. We find that approximately 23,000 street vendors operate in New York City: 20,500 mobile food vendors and 2,300 general merchandise vendors. One third are located in just six ZIP Codes: 11368 (16%), 11372 (3%), and 11354 (3%) in North and West Queens and 10036 (5%), 10019 (4%), and 10001 (3%) in the Chelsea and Clinton neighborhoods of Manhattan. We also provide a theoretical justification of our estimates based on the theory of point processes and a discussion of their accuracy and implications. In particular, our estimates suggest the American Community Survey fails to cover the majority of New York City street vendors.

Problem

• Estimating total street vendor population in New York City
• Developing ratio estimation method using point process theory
• Identifying geographic concentration patterns of street vendors

Innovation

• Ratio estimation with point process data
• Survey data from licensed and unlicensed vendors
• Theoretical justification based on point process theory