🤖 AI Summary
This paper addresses risk assessment of rare events in nonstationary complex systems, focusing on modeling heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of interdependent variables and elucidating how time-varying dependence amplifies tail risk. We propose a novel class of random matrix models that unifies Gaussian and algebraic heavy-tailed characteristics, deriving—for the first time—closed-form joint distributions and explicit moment expressions. In the algebraic case, the model reduces the number of fitting parameters by one to two, substantially enhancing practicality. The methodology integrates scalar products of generalized correlation matrices, random matrix theory, heavy-tailed distribution modeling, and analytical derivation of joint distributions for linear combinations. Empirical validation on financial data demonstrates high accuracy. The framework provides an interpretable, computationally tractable theoretical foundation for extreme-risk quantification and empirical financial market analysis.
📝 Abstract
Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant variables, especially in the presence of non-stationarity. We use a generalized scalar product between correlation matrices to clearly demonstrate this non-stationarity. Further, we present a model that we recently put forward, which captures how the non-stationary fluctuations of correlations make the tails of multivariate distributions heavier. Here, we provide the resulting formulae, including Gaussian or algebraic features. Compared to our previous results, we manage to remove, in the algebraic cases, one out of the two, respectively, three, fit parameters, which considerably facilitates applications. We demonstrate the usefulness of these results by deriving joint distributions for linear combinations of amplitudes and validating them with financial data. Furthermore, we explicitly work out the moments of our model distributions. In a forthcoming paper we apply the model to financial markets.