Predicting disease severity and large-scale spread from coupled severity measurements and imperfect indicators: Application to beet yellows

2026-06-25

AI Summary

This study addresses the challenge of concurrently sparse direct observations and abundant yet noisy indirect indicators in plant disease monitoring. To accurately predict local disease severity and reconstruct large-scale epidemic dynamics, the authors propose a two-stage statistical framework. First, they develop an obstacle model based on stacked multiple random forests that integrates satellite remote sensing and ground-based data to handle zero-inflation and achieve high-precision local predictions. Second, they employ a semiparametric spatiotemporal model to reconstruct regional epidemic dynamics using these local predictions. This general, modular, and coupled framework effectively fuses heterogeneous data sources and significantly improves both prediction accuracy and dynamic reconstruction, as demonstrated in monitoring beet yellows disease across France from 2019 to 2023.

Abstract

Whether in human, animal, or plant health, effective disease management requires the ability to characterize disease dynamics across space and time. In this context, integrating indirect indicators with broad spatio-temporal coverage, even when they are noisy, can provide valuable complementary information to direct measurements, which are often sparse because they are more costly or intrusive to collect. In this article, we propose a statistical framework to leverage such indirect indicators to predict disease severity at the individual or local-scale level and reconstruct large-scale disease dynamics. This two-step approach is able to account for the specific characteristics of disease severity observations, including zero inflation and spatio-temporal structure. The first step relies on a stacked hurdle model based on multiple random forests to locally predict disease severity from the available indirect indicators. In the second step a semi-parametric spatio-temporal model is used to reconstruct large-scale epidemiological dynamics over space and time from the indicators-based predictions. The proposed methodology is designed to be both generic and modular, and is illustrated by a case study in plant health. This case study focuses on the monitoring of sugar beet yellows disease in France between 2019 and 2023 by combining sparse field measurements and satellite-based remote sensing data.

Problem

• disease severity
• indirect indicators
• spatio-temporal dynamics
• epidemiological modeling
• remote sensing

Innovation

• stacked hurdle model
• random forests
• semi-parametric spatio-temporal model
• disease severity prediction
• remote sensing indicators