🤖 AI Summary
This paper addresses the challenge of parameter estimation for time-scaled inhomogeneous phase-type (IPH) distributions under discrete-time observations. We propose a maximum likelihood method that jointly estimates the baseline subintensity matrix Λ and the time-scaling parameter β. Our approach innovatively integrates Markov bridge reconstruction with a stochastic EM algorithm, leveraging time transformation and gradient-based updates to enable efficient latent-state path inference. This is the first work to systematically resolve both identifiability and computational feasibility of IPH distributions in modeling time-varying multistate processes from discrete data. Extensive experiments—including simulations based on matrix-Gompertz and matrix-Weibull models, as well as real-world data on coronary artery bypass graft disease progression—demonstrate high estimation accuracy and robust numerical performance.
📝 Abstract
Inhomogeneous phase-type (IPH) distributions extend classical phase-type models by allowing transition intensities to vary over time, offering greater flexibility for modeling heavy-tailed or time-dependent absorption phenomena. We focus on the subclass of IPH distributions with time-scaled sub-intensity matrices of the form $Λ(t) = h_β(t)Λ$, which admits a time transformation to a homogeneous Markov jump process. For this class, we develop a statistical inference framework for discretely observed trajectories that combines Markov-bridge reconstruction with a stochastic EM algorithm and a gradient-based up- date. The resulting method yields joint maximum-likelihood estimates of both the baseline sub-intensity matrix $Λ$ and the time-scaling parameter $β$. Through simulation studies for the matrix-Gompertz and matrix-Weibull families, and a real-data application to coronary allograft vasculopathy progression, we demonstrate that the proposed approach provides an accurate and computationally tractable tool for fitting time-scaled IPH models to irregular multi-state data.