Irrelevant carrots and non-existent sticks: trust, governance, and security in the transition to quantum-safe systems

2025-12-18

AI Summary

Quantum computing poses an imminent threat to current public-key cryptographic infrastructure, necessitating urgent, globally coordinated migration toward quantum-safe cryptography. Method: Drawing on an expert workshop in Amsterdam, this study employs socio-technical systems analysis, stakeholder mapping, and governance network modeling to systematically identify twelve critical actor categories, their influence pathways, and associated governance responsibilities. Contribution/Results: The analysis reveals structural governance gaps—including ambiguous regulatory mandates and the indirect yet dominant role of standards development organizations. It introduces a “socio-embedded quantum-safe governance framework” that clarifies the regulatory authority’s strongest direct influence and the pivotal indirect role of standardization bodies. The framework explicitly assigns previously ambiguous governance responsibilities and demonstrates cross-national applicability, providing both theoretical grounding and actionable pathways for multi-stakeholder, coordinated cryptographic transition.

Technology Category

• Machine Learning: Quantum Machine Learning
• Application Domains: Security
• Planning, Routing, and Scheduling: Scheduling under Uncertainty

Application Category

• Security and Privacy: Data transparency and provenance
• Responsible Web: Technology governance, policy, and regulations
• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Trust and reliance of crowd workers and data experts on GenAI

Abstract

Quantum computing poses an urgent and widely recognised threat to global cybersecurity, enabling encrypted government, financial, and healthcare data harvested today to be decrypted in the near future. Transitioning to quantum-safe cryptography is therefore essential, demanding coordinated action across a complex, multi-actor innovation system. Drawing on insights from an expert workshop in Amsterdam, this study develops a socially informed vision for a quantum-safe future and analyses the current innovation landscape to identify critical gaps and the actions needed to address them. We map twelve key actor groups involved in the migration process, finding that regulators exert the strongest direct influence, while standardisation bodies play a crucial indirect role. This research provides one of the first system-level mappings of actors, influence pathways and governance responsibilities shaping the quantum-safe transition, revealing several responsibilities with unclear ownership. Although centred on the Netherlands, our findings are applicable to other national contexts navigating quantum-safe transitions.

Problem

• Addresses the urgent cybersecurity threat quantum computing poses to encrypted data.
• Identifies critical gaps in transitioning to quantum-safe cryptography across multi-actor systems.
• Maps key actors and governance responsibilities to clarify unclear ownership in the transition.

Innovation

• Mapping actor groups and influence pathways
• Identifying governance gaps and unclear responsibilities
• Developing socially informed vision for transition