Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
Elo ratings
Transfermarkt valuations
match forecasts
UEFA club competitions
forecast accuracy
Match forecasts in UEFA club competitions: Elo ratings versus Transfermarkt valuations
🤖 AI Summary
该研究通过比较Elo评分和转会市场估值在预测2020/21至2024/25赛季欧洲足球俱乐部比赛结果中的表现，发现两者单独使用时准确率相近，结合使用略有提升。
📝 Abstract
The pre-season strengths of European football clubs are usually measured by two proxies in the literature. Football Club Elo Ratings provide strictly performance-based Elo ratings from the early days of the European Cups, while Transfermarkt valuations are crowd-based estimates of squad market values. This paper compares them by evaluating their ability to forecast the results of matches played in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League between the seasons 2020/21 and 2024/25. The two indicators yield almost identical out-of-sample accuracy when used separately. Combining the two measures leads to a modest improvement, but the best aggregation procedure is sensitive to the forecast target. Our results suggest that seeding based on Elo ratings would be (closely) optimal.
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
Elo Ratings
Transfermarkt Valuations
Match Forecasting
UEFA Competitions
Aggregation Procedure
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