Efficient estimation of relative risk, odds ratio and their logarithms for rare events

📅 2026-04-05
📈 Citations: 0
✨ Influential: 0
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🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the inadequate estimation accuracy of the relative risk (RR), odds ratio (OR), and their logarithmic forms for rare binary attributes in two populations. To overcome this limitation, the authors propose a sequential equal-allocation sampling method that efficiently estimates these parameters while ensuring the relative mean squared error (for RR/OR) or mean squared error (for the log-transformed parameters) remains below a pre-specified threshold. Under rare or moderately rare event settings, the proposed estimator achieves performance approaching the Cramér–Rao lower bound, offering both high efficiency and rigorous error control. The key innovation lies in integrating a sequential sampling strategy with explicit mean squared error constraints, substantially enhancing the precision and reliability of RR and OR estimation in scenarios involving rare events.

Technology Category

Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty QuantificationReasoning under Uncertainty: Relational Probabilistic ModelsIntelligent Robots: State Estimation

Application Category

Search and Retrieval-Augmented AI: Web learning to rank, online learning, and counterfactual learning for rankingSecurity and Privacy: Large-scale security measurementsGraph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Algorithms and analysis for incomplete, noisy, or partially observed Web-related graphs
📝 Abstract
Sequential estimators are proposed for the relative risk, odds ratio, log relative risk or log odds ratio of a dichotomous attribute in two populations. The estimators take the same number of observations from each population, and guarantee that the relative mean-square error for the relative risk or odds ratio, or the mean-square error for their logarithmic versions, is less than a given target. The efficiency of the estimators, defined in terms of the Cramér-Rao bound, is high when the considered attribute is rare or moderately rare.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

relative risk
odds ratio
rare events
sequential estimation
mean-square error
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

sequential estimation
relative risk
odds ratio
rare events
Cramér-Rao efficiency
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L
Luis Mendo
Information Processing and Telecommunications Center, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Avenida Complutense, 30, Madrid, 28040, Spain