Computational Modeling of Human Adaptation in Urban Infrastructure Management under Extreme Conditions: A Case Study of Subway Flood Scenarios

2026-06-04

AI Summary

This study addresses the limitations of existing urban infrastructure management systems in capturing operators’ non-monotonic adaptive behaviors and cognitive biases—such as overconfidence and defensive overcorrection—during extreme events. For the first time in civil engineering computing, Instance-Based Learning Theory (IBLT) is integrated to develop a computational cognitive architecture that combines memory retrieval with utility aggregation mechanisms, simulating subway dispatchers’ decision-making under flood scenarios. The research uncovers a four-phase nonlinear cycle of human adaptation: acquisition, overconfidence, overcorrection, and recalibration, and achieves an algorithmic disentanglement of psychological biases from experience-driven behavior. The model reproduces stable experiential adaptation trajectories, while human-in-the-loop experiments reveal that operators significantly overestimate risk post-incident, demonstrating that operational instability arises when acute cognitive biases override learning mechanisms.

Abstract

Decision-making in urban infrastructure management during extreme events relies heavily on human operators, yet current computational support systems often fail to account for non-monotonic human adaptation and latent psychological biases like overconfidence and defensive overcorrection. This study addresses this gap by integrating Instance-Based Learning Theory (IBLT) into the domain of civil engineering computing. We establish a computational cognitive architecture that simulates operator decision processes through the mathematical mechanisms of memory retrieval and utility blending. This model functions as a computational baseline, representing boundedly rational adaptation driven by experiential priors, thus allowing for the algorithmic isolation of latent psychological biases from the baseline dynamics of memory-based learning. We demonstrated this framework using a human-in-the-loop microworld experiment simulating subway flood-induced track suspensions, where dispatchers must balance passenger safety against service efficiency. Analysis revealed a complex, non-linear human adaptation cycle consisting of four phases: acquisition, overconfidence, overcorrection, and recalibration. Specifically, the computational model exposed a significant divergence during the post-accident "overcorrection" phase: while human operators exhibited immediate, defensive risk overestimation, the model maintained a stable trajectory based on accumulated experience. This strategic divergence confirms that operational instability following failure is often attributable to acute psychological bias overriding stable memory-based adaptation, a pattern theoretically expected to recur across analogous high-stakes environments and validatable through multi-modal behavioral and sensor data from professional operators.

Problem

• human adaptation
• psychological bias
• urban infrastructure management
• extreme events
• decision-making

Innovation

• Instance-Based Learning Theory
• computational cognitive architecture
• human adaptation
• psychological bias
• urban infrastructure management