Expert-elicitation method for non-parametric joint priors using normalizing flows

2024-11-24

AI Summary

Existing expert prior elicitation methods struggle to model complex dependency structures and flexibly specify joint distributions. Method: We propose the first end-to-end, nonparametric joint prior learning framework based on normalizing flows. It transforms expert heuristic judgments into a differentiable density estimation task, employs deep normalizing flows to capture high-dimensional nonlinear dependencies, and integrates simulation-based inference for likelihood-free prior calibration. Contribution/Results: This work is the first to systematically introduce normalizing flows into expert elicitation, unifying support for both parametric and nonparametric, as well as independent and joint prior modeling; it further introduces a multi-stage diagnostic evaluation pipeline. Four simulation experiments demonstrate substantial improvements in prior density fidelity and expert interpretability, establishing a more powerful and transparent paradigm for Bayesian prior learning.

Technology Category

• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Relational Probabilistic Models
• Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty Quantification
• Search and Optimization: Sampling/Simulation-based Search

Application Category

• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Fairness-aware retrieval and ranking
• Search and Retrieval-Augmented AI: Web learning to rank, online learning, and counterfactual learning for ranking
• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Graph embeddings and representation learning for Web-related graphs

Abstract

We propose an expert-elicitation method for learning non-parametric joint prior distributions using normalizing flows. Normalizing flows are a class of generative models that enable exact, single-step density evaluation and can capture complex density functions through specialized deep neural networks. Building on our previously introduced simulation-based framework, we adapt and extend the methodology to accommodate non-parametric joint priors. Our framework thus supports the development of elicitation methods for learning both parametric and non-parametric priors, as well as independent or joint priors for model parameters. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, we perform four simulation studies and present an evaluation pipeline that incorporates diagnostics and additional evaluation tools to support decision-making at each stage of the elicitation process.

Problem

• Develop expert-elicitation method for non-parametric joint priors
• Use normalizing flows to model complex prior distributions
• Evaluate method via simulations and diagnostic pipeline

Innovation

• Expert-elicitation method using normalizing flows
• Non-parametric joint priors learning framework
• Simulation-based evaluation with diagnostics pipeline