Import dependence and per capita production are main determinants of economies' food supply robustness under production shocks

2026-08-02

AI Summary

This study investigates how production shocks to major global staple crops—wheat, rice, maize, and soybeans—disproportionately affect national food supplies through international trade networks, with import-dependent economies facing the highest risks. Using 2023 data on production, stocks, and bilateral trade flows, the authors construct a calorie-equivalent global food supply network and employ a dynamic shock propagation model to simulate yield reductions in key exporting countries. They identify import dependency and per capita domestic production as the two core determinants of supply resilience. Counterfactual policy experiments reveal that the wheat system exhibits the greatest resilience, while soybeans are the most vulnerable; moreover, increasing strategic reserves or altering trade structures yields only marginal improvements and may even adversely affect maize and soybean systems, underscoring the necessity for crop-specific policy design.

Abstract

Food supply shocks in major producing economies can propagate through trade networks and generate uneven impacts across the global food system. This study examines the robustness of economies' food supply under production shocks to major producers in the global staple food system. Using 2023 production, reserve, and bilateral trade data for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean, we construct a calorie-based global food supply network across economies. We extend a dynamic shock propagation framework and then simulate production shocks to major producing economies, tracing how supply losses propagate. The results show substantial heterogeneity in robustness across crops and economies. Wheat exhibits the highest overall robustness, whereas soybean shows the lowest. Economies with high robustness tend to be either relatively isolated from the trade network or actively engaged in trade while maintaining strong and stable domestic production, whereas low-robustness economies are predominantly those with high import dependence. Import dependence and per capita production emerge as the most important determinants of robustness. Based on these findings, we design two counterfactual policies targeting highly import-dependent economies: increasing reserve availability and adjusting trade linkages. Counterfactual experiments show that the two policies yield only modest overall improvements, with effects varying substantially across crops. Both policies improve robustness in the aggregated system and wheat, trade adjustment is more effective for rice, and it brings limited or even negative effects for maize and soybean.

Problem

• food supply robustness
• production shocks
• import dependence
• global food system
• trade networks

Innovation

• shock propagation
• food supply robustness
• trade network
• import dependence
• counterfactual policy