🤖 AI Summary
This study challenges the conventional “clean power first, then electrification” pathway assumed in China’s net-zero transition, examining the multi-layered climate impacts of sequencing electrification and coal-power phaseout. Method: We develop a multi-scenario coupled analytical framework using the GCAM model, integrating energy-system simulation with quantified temperature-response modeling. Contribution/Results: We identify a critical threshold: electricity carbon intensity below 150 gCO₂/kWh triggers substantial emissions reductions—eliminating the need to wait for full power-sector decarbonization. Achieving this threshold before 2040 enables deep emissions cuts across buildings, steel, and transport sectors; combined with energy efficiency improvements, it could avert 0.035°C of global warming by 2060. These findings refute the prevailing assumption that electrification must lag behind power-sector cleaning, providing key scientific evidence to optimize China’s carbon neutrality strategy.
📝 Abstract
Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and electrifying end-use sectors. However, concerns exist that electrification may increase emissions while coal power dominates. Using a global climate model, we explore electrification scenarios with varying coal phase-out timelines and assess their climate impact on China's sectors. A ten-year delay in coal phase-out could increase global peak temperature by about 0.02{deg}C. However, on a sectoral level, there is no evidence of significant additional emissions from electrification, even with a slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential ``order of abatement'' view, showing electrification can start before the power sector is fully decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity drops below 150 gCO2/kWh by 2040, electrification can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of buildings, steel, and transport services, and along with energy efficiency measures, it can avoid approximately 0.035{deg}C of additional global warming by 2060.
