🤖 AI Summary
研究通过放宽可识别性要求，使用惩罚最小二乘法从一系列嵌套类中选择回归模型的阶数，解决了在误差依赖和非可识别情况下的一致阶数选择问题。
📝 Abstract
We provide sufficient conditions for the consistency of penalized least squares procedures that select the order (dimension) of a regression model from a sequence of nested classes, allowing for dependent, martingale-difference errors. The main contribution is to relax the classical identifiability requirement: parameters indexing classes larger than the true order need not be identified, provided the additional, excess directions admit a linear approximation to the truth in a neighbourhood of the true parameter. This relaxation lets the number of candidate models grow with the sample size, removing the usual need for a fixed upper bound. We verify the resulting high-level conditions for two classes of nonlinear regression models used in applied work: multiple-regime smooth transition regression and mixture-of-experts models with generic generalized linear model experts. Under a BIC-type penalty, the resulting order selection rule is consistent in either model class whenever the number of candidate models grows slower than the logarithm of the sample size.