🤖 AI Summary
该研究通过推断在线社交网络中的意见更新概率，验证了Ising模型在描述意见动态方面的微观有效性，并揭示了社会行为与网络拓扑之间的定量联系。
📝 Abstract
Kinetic Ising models are widely used to describe binary opinion dynamics, but their microscopic validity has rarely been tested empirically. Here, we infer the transition probabilities governing opinion updates from a year-long online social network and show that they are accurately described by an Ising heat-bath dynamics. The inferred parameters admit a direct sociological interpretation: the external field quantifies intrinsic bias, the coupling strength measures social influence, and a persistence term captures temporal inertia. We further show that persistence is positively correlated with node degree, while both persistence and interaction strength are strongly correlated with global network heterogeneity and clustering. Using the inferred time-dependent parameters in Monte Carlo simulations on the empirical temporal networks, we accurately reproduce the observed response functions, flip probabilities, and macroscopic opinion dynamics. Within the Twitter climate debate, our results provide direct empirical support for a kinetic Ising description of online opinion formation and establish a quantitative link between microscopic social behavior and evolving network topology.