Generating Chest X-Ray Counterfactuals by Specialising Foundation Image Models

๐Ÿ“… 2026-09-21
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๐Ÿ“ Abstract
Counterfactual image generation answers questions about how a subject would have looked under retrospective, hypothetical scenarios. Recent methods have improved perceptual quality, identity preservation and faithfulness to an underlying causal model, but their adoption in healthcare is limited by scarce annotated data, distribution shift between datasets, and mismatches between pretrained generative models and those required for counterfactual inference. We propose specialisation, a data and parameter-efficient framework for adapting pretrained, non-causal generative models into causal mechanisms under distribution shift. Based on this framework, we train a radiology counterfactual image generation model, called RadCF, using latent flow matching. We validate our approach on three chest X-ray datasets spanning different dataset shifts, data volumes, and counterfactual questions, associated with challenging, highly-localised interventions. Our results show that RadCF and specialisation improve counterfactual soundness over existing methods while being data and parameter efficient, and that the resulting counterfactuals can detect and mitigate shortcut learning in a downstream medical classifier. Code is available at https://github.com/GSK-AI/RadCF/.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

counterfactual image generation
chest X-ray
distribution shift
annotated data
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

specialisation
counterfactual image generation
latent flow matching
distribution shift
X
Xiaodan Xing
GSK
R
Rajat R. Rasal
Imperial College London
J
Julia A. Meister
GSK
S
Sara Ghorayeb
GSK
G
Galvin Khara
GSK
Jessica Schrouff
Jessica Schrouff
DeepMind
Machine LearningDeep LearningHealthSignal ProcessingMedical Imaging