Predictive Photometric Uncertainty in Gaussian Splatting for Novel View Synthesis

πŸ“… 2026-03-24
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This work addresses the lack of reliable photometric uncertainty estimation in 3D Gaussian splatting for novel view synthesis, which hinders its trustworthy deployment in safety-critical applications. The authors propose a lightweight, plug-and-play post-processing framework that introduces per-Gaussian uncertainty channels without modifying the original representation. By modeling reconstruction residuals through Bayesian-regularized linear least squares optimization, the method enables pixel-wise, view-dependent predictive uncertainty quantification. While preserving rendering fidelity, the approach significantly enhances performance in three downstream tasks: active viewpoint selection, pose-invariant scene change detection, and anomaly detection. This advancement represents a crucial step toward enabling trustworthy spatial perception with Gaussian splatting.

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πŸ“ Abstract
Recent advances in 3D Gaussian Splatting have enabled impressive photorealistic novel view synthesis. However, to transition from a pure rendering engine to a reliable spatial map for autonomous agents and safety-critical applications, knowing where the representation is uncertain is as important as the rendering fidelity itself. We bridge this critical gap by introducing a lightweight, plug-and-play framework for pixel-wise, view-dependent predictive uncertainty estimation. Our post-hoc method formulates uncertainty as a Bayesian-regularized linear least-squares optimization over reconstruction residuals. This architecture-agnostic approach extracts a per-primitive uncertainty channel without modifying the underlying scene representation or degrading baseline visual fidelity. Crucially, we demonstrate that providing this actionable reliability signal successfully translates 3D Gaussian splatting into a trustworthy spatial map, further improving state-of-the-art performance across three critical downstream perception tasks: active view selection, pose-agnostic scene change detection, and pose-agnostic anomaly detection.
Problem

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Predictive Uncertainty
Gaussian Splatting
Novel View Synthesis
Photometric Uncertainty
Spatial Mapping
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Predictive Uncertainty
Gaussian Splatting
Novel View Synthesis
Bayesian Regularization
Spatial Mapping
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