Auto Researching, not hyperparameter tuning: Convergence Analysis of 10,000 Experiments

๐Ÿ“… 2026-03-16
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๐Ÿค– AI Summary
้€š่ฟ‡ๅˆ†ๆžไธ‡ไฝ™ๆฌกๅฎž้ชŒ๏ผŒๅ‘็ŽฐLLMๆ™บ่ƒฝไฝ“ไธป่ฆ้€š่ฟ‡ๆžถๆž„ๆœ็ดข๏ผˆ่€Œ้ž่ถ…ๅ‚่ฐƒไผ˜๏ผ‰ๆๅ‡ๆ€ง่ƒฝ๏ผŒๅนถ้ชŒ่ฏๅ…ถ่ƒฝ่‡ชไธปๅ‘็Žฐ้ซ˜ๆ•ˆๆจกๅž‹็ป“ๆž„ใ€‚

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๐Ÿ“ Abstract
When LLM agents autonomously design ML experiments, do they perform genuine architecture search -- or do they default to hyperparameter tuning within a narrow region of the design space? We answer this question by analyzing 10,469 experiments executed by two LLM agents (Claude Opus and Gemini 2.5 Pro) across a combinatorial configuration space of 108,000 discrete cells for dashcam collision detection over 27 days. Through ANOVA decomposition, we find that \textbf{architectural choices explain 94\% of performance variance} ($F = 1324$, $ฮท^2 = 0.94$), while hyperparameter variation within a fixed architecture explains only 6\%. Cross-task validation on a second collision dataset confirms this finding (75\% architecture-explained variance) with a \emph{different} winning backbone, confirming genuine architecture discovery. The agents' key contribution is discovering that V-JEPA\,2 video features with Zipformer temporal encoders achieve 0.9245 AP -- a configuration no human proposed -- and concentrating search on productive architectural regions: at $N = 50$, LLM-guided search reaches AP $= 0.985$ versus $0.965$ for from-scratch random search. Post-bugfix convergence follows a power law ($c = 0.11$, $R^2 = 0.93$); the low exponent reflects the cost of broad exploration, not inefficiency, since the LLM discovers qualitatively better regions than random or Bayesian baselines. We characterize multi-agent search dynamics via entropy cycles and Jensen--Shannon specialization, providing the first large-scale empirical framework for LLM-guided combinatorial ML experiment design.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

architecture search
hyperparameter tuning
LLM agents
combinatorial experiment design
neural architecture discovery
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

LLM-guided architecture search
combinatorial experiment design
V-JEPA with Zipformer
ANOVA decomposition of performance variance
multi-agent search dynamics
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