Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
Transaction Costs
Transaction Speed
Scalability
Ethereum Mainnet
Layer 2
Transaction Costs and Speed in the Ethereum Ecosystem: Scalability of the Mainnet and Layer 2s
🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the scalability limitations of Ethereum Mainnet and its Layer 2 (L2) solutions relative to high-performance blockchains like Solana. Focusing on the period from January 2024 to March 2026, the work systematically quantifies the impact of Ethereum upgrades—including block space expansion and blob transactions—on throughput and transaction fees, while comparatively analyzing performance trajectories across L2s, Solana, and Polygon. The paper introduces the novel EIP-7938 Strawmap framework, integrating on-chain data analysis, TPS and fee modeling, scaling simulations, and time-series forecasting. Results indicate that median mainnet transaction fees decline from over $2 to below $0.02, and L2 fees drop by more than 95%. The model forecasts that L2 fees will fall below Solana’s by October 2026, with L2 TPS surpassing Solana’s by March 2029.
📝 Abstract
We study the evolution of transaction speed and fees from January 2024 through March 2026, comparing Ethereum Mainnet and its Layer 2 (L2) networks, as well as Solana and Polygon. Ethereum has undergone upgrades that have increased block size and blob count. These upgrades have doubled transactions per second (TPS) on both the Mainnet and the L2 networks. Mainnet median fees have fallen from over \$2 to under \$0.02, and L2 median fees have fallen more than 95% from \$0.05 to \$0.0015. We forecast that Mainnet median fees will converge with Solana in August 2027, but TPS will remain below 100 until 2034. The L1 Strawmap, proposing EIP-7938, a potential exponential increase in the gas limit, brings the Mainnet to only 100 TPS in January 2028. With continued blob expansion, L2s will surpass Solana TPS in March 2029 and have lower median fees by October 2026.
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
Ethereum scalability
Layer 2 networks
transaction fees
transactions per second (TPS)
EIP-7938
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