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The Aftermath of Peace: The Impact of the FARC's Ceasefire on Forced Displacement in Colombia
🤖 AI Summary
This study examines the impact of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC) 2014 unilateral permanent ceasefire on internal displacement in Colombia. Using municipal-level panel data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, the analysis innovatively combines the precise timing of the ceasefire with pre-conflict FARC geographic presence to isolate causal effects. Results show that the ceasefire significantly reduced the incidence of severe forced displacement in affected municipalities; the effect emerged progressively and persisted for at least three years. These findings provide robust evidence that effective implementation of peace agreements can substantially alleviate humanitarian crises. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically assess the humanitarian consequences of a unilateral ceasefire at a micro-geographic level, offering novel causal evidence for conflict de-escalation and displacement governance.
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Application Category
📝 Abstract
Colombia's prolonged conflict has made the country one of the most affected by forced internal displacement (FID) in the world. This study examines the impact of the FARC's 2014 unilateral and permanent ceasefire on FID. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing of the ceasefire and the pre-conflict distribution of FARC presence across municipalities. Results show a substantial reduction in severe displacement episodes in affected areas, with effects that emerged gradually and persisted over time. These findings highlight the importance of stability and the effective implementation of peace agreements in mitigating FID and its far-reaching consequences.
Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
Impact of FARC ceasefire on forced displacement
Reduction in displacement episodes in affected areas
Importance of peace agreements for stability
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
Difference-in-differences strategy analyzing ceasefire impact
Exploited timing and pre-conflict FARC distribution data
Measured reduction in severe displacement episodes
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