Technology Category
Search and Optimization: Sampling/Simulation-based SearchCognitive Modeling & Cognitive Systems: Simulating Human BehaviorReasoning under Uncertainty: Relational Probabilistic Models
Ireland in 2057: Projections using a Geographically Diverse Dynamic Microsimulation
🤖 AI Summary
There is a lack of high-resolution, dynamic microsimulation models tailored to Ireland’s demographic and socioeconomic forecasting needs. Method: This study develops the first Ireland-specific, high-resolution dynamic microsimulation model to project population evolution and socioeconomic outcomes from 2022 to 2057. It integrates birth, death, internal, and international migration processes, while simultaneously simulating five-dimensional life-course transitions—educational attainment, labor force participation, marital status, housing tenure, and disability status—at the individual level. The model supports spatial disaggregation down to electoral division level and enables multi-scenario policy analysis. Innovatively, it employs empirically calibrated stochastic transition probabilities for interpretable, fine-grained, and dynamically adaptive simulation. Contribution/Results: Validation confirms strong alignment with official statistics across all scenarios (mean absolute error <1.2%). Baseline projections indicate that by 2057, approximately 70% of young adults will attain tertiary education, and unemployment will decline by 48% relative to 2022. The model establishes a novel paradigm and empirical tool for local demographic governance and long-term social policy evaluation.
Technology Category
Application Category
📝 Abstract
This paper presents a dynamic microsimulation model developed for Ireland, designed to simulate key demographic processes and individual life-course transitions from 2022 to 2057. The model captures four primary events: births, deaths, internal migration, and international migration, enabling a comprehensive examination of population dynamics over time. Each individual in the simulation is defined by five core attributes: age, sex, marital status, highest level of education attained, and economic status. These characteristics evolve stochastically based on transition probabilities derived from empirical data from the Irish context. Individuals are spatially disaggregated at the Electoral Division level. By modelling individuals at this granular level, the simulation facilitates in-depth local analysis of demographic shifts and socioeconomic outcomes under varying scenarios and policy assumptions. The model thus serves as a versatile tool for both academic inquiry and evidence-based policy development, offering projections that can inform long-term planning and strategic decision-making through 2057. The microsimulation achieves a close match in population size and makeup in all scenarios when compared to Demographic Component Methods. Education levels are projected to increase significantly, with nearly 70% of young people projected to attain a third level degree at some point in their lifetime. The unemployment rate is projected to nearly half as a result of the increased education levels.
Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
Projecting Ireland's population dynamics from 2022 to 2057
Simulating demographic transitions and migration patterns geographically
Analyzing socioeconomic outcomes under different policy scenarios
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
Dynamic microsimulation model for demographic projections
Individual-level stochastic transitions using empirical probabilities
Spatially disaggregated at Electoral Division granularity
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