Technology Category
Search and Optimization: Mixed Discrete/Continuous SearchMachine Learning: Large Multimodal Models (LMMs)Planning, Routing, and Scheduling: Optimization of Spatio-temporal Systems
Coping with the Dunkelflaute: Power system implications of variable renewable energy droughts in Europe
🤖 AI Summary
The “Dunkelflaute”—prolonged, low-renewable-output periods characterized by simultaneous low wind and solar irradiance—represents a core resilience challenge for zero-carbon power systems.
Method: Leveraging 36 years of high-resolution meteorological data, this study identifies the winter of 1996/97 as Europe’s most severe historical Dunkelflaute event. Integrating coupled wind–solar generation time-series modeling with multi-scenario power system optimization, it quantifies the synergistic roles of long-duration energy storage (LDES) and cross-border interconnection.
Results: Mitigating this extreme event requires 351 TWh of LDES (7% of annual electricity demand); even under fully unconstrained pan-European interconnection, 159 TWh (3%) remains indispensable—demonstrating that geographic diversification cannot substitute for LDES. Zero-carbon baseload generation yields only marginal LDES reductions. The study introduces a novel meteorology–system co-identification framework for extreme events and establishes the irreplaceable role of LDES in ensuring system resilience.
Technology Category
Application Category
📝 Abstract
Coping with prolonged periods of low availability of wind and solar power, also referred to as"Dunkelflaute", emerges as a key challenge for realizing a decarbonized European energy system fully based on renewable energy sources. Here we investigate the role of long-duration electricity storage and geographical balancing in dealing with such variable renewable energy droughts. To this end, we combine renewable availability time series analysis and power sector modeling, using 36 historical weather years. We find that extreme drought events define long-duration storage operation and investment. The most extreme event in Europe occurred in the winter of 1996/97. Assuming policy-relevant interconnection, long-duration storage of 351 TWh or 7% of yearly electricity demand is required to deal with this event. As it affects many countries simultaneously, a storage capacity of 159 TWh or 3% of yearly electricity demand remains required even in the extreme case of unconstrained geographical balancing. Before and during Dunkelflaute events, we find complex interactions of long-duration storage with other flexibility options. Sensitivity analyses illustrate that firm zero-emission generation technologies would only moderately reduce long-duration storage needs. Thus, policymakers and system planners should prepare for a rapid expansion of long-duration storage capacity to safeguard the renewable energy transition in Europe. We further argue that using multiple weather years that include pronounced renewable energy droughts is required for weather-resilient energy system modeling.
Problem
Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.
Addressing prolonged low wind and solar availability periods
Investigating long-duration storage and geographical balancing solutions
Determining optimal storage capacity for extreme renewable droughts
Innovation
Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.
Long-duration electricity storage for renewable droughts
Geographical balancing through interconnection across Europe
Power sector modeling with historical weather data
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DIW Berlin | Technical University Berlin | Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
