Conditions for Social Trajectory Collapse: Agent-Based Simulation of Time-Geographic Trajectory Distributions

2026-10-01

AI Summary

This study addresses regional development imbalances arising from metropolitan agglomeration by proposing an integrated evaluation framework that incorporates activity diversity, cost burden, and welfare. By combining agent-based modeling (ABM) with time-geographic methods, the research models and analyzes the distribution of social trajectories across five countries. Results indicate a substantial decline in trajectory diversity—ranging from 52.6% to 79.0%—between 2026 and 2036, while also revealing country-specific evolutionary trends and dynamic shifts in costs and welfare. Innovatively characterizing regional development through social trajectory diversity, this work offers novel perspectives and methodological support for forecasting the evolution of spatial inequality.

Abstract

Metropolitan concentration has motivated policies for more balanced regional development. We use agent-based simulation to examine trajectory diversity, the variety of people's recurring activity orientations toward neighborhoods, urban centers, and wider networks. The model maps 2010 population shares to 2026 distributions in five country cases, China, Russia, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and simulates change to 2036. Trajectory diversity declines by 52.6-79.0% over 2026-2036. Russia and Japan show the largest increases in the share of the most common trajectory, while US diversity contracts despite a slight decline in this share. Cost burdens rise throughout, whereas welfare falls in the Russian and Japanese cases but rises in the other three. These findings suggest that regional development should be assessed through activity diversity, cost burdens, and welfare together.

Problem

• social trajectory collapse
• trajectory diversity
• metropolitan concentration
• regional development
• agent-based simulation

Innovation

• Agent-based simulation
• Trajectory diversity
• Time-geographic modeling
• Regional development
• Social trajectory collapse