Ranking-based competitive balance measures in Formula One

2026-07-25

AI Summary

This study addresses the challenge of effectively measuring competitive balance in Formula 1 racing, with particular attention to the differential importance of rank changes at various positions in the standings. To this end, the authors propose two weighted Kemeny distance metrics that assign greater sensitivity to movements near the top of the ranking. Integrating structural break detection with statistical significance testing, they analyze the evolution of competitive dynamics in Formula 1 from 1950 to 2024 at both race and season levels. The findings reveal a significant deterioration in competitive balance over the past two decades, identify three structural breaks closely aligned with major regulatory changes—highlighting the pivotal role of governance—and demonstrate robustness across alternative weighting schemes, thereby validating the methodological innovation and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Abstract

Competitiveness in racing sports can be measured by comparing the start and finish rankings within races, as well as the start and finish rankings across races in a season. Since the importance of position changes is non-uniform and variance at the top of the ranking is more interesting than at the bottom of the ranking, we propose using weighted distances for this purpose. Therefore, two weighting schemes are applied and compared to the standard Kemeny distance to analyse the Formula One between 1950 and 2024. The evolution of competitive balance is unexpectedly robust to the weights, but competition is more intense if one focuses on the top positions. Competitive balance has been more unfavourable in the last two decades than ever before. Statistical tests uncover three structural breaks in competitive balance that are closely related to regulatory changes, highlighting the role of decision-makers in the evolution of competitiveness.

Problem

• competitive balance
• ranking
• Formula One
• Kemeny distance
• weighting schemes

Innovation

• weighted distance
• competitive balance
• Kemeny distance
• structural break
• Formula One