Agentic AI Orchestration of Heterogeneous Economic Models for Rapid, Multi-scenario Analysis of Energy Crises

2026-07-25

AI Summary

This study addresses the challenge of timely policy decision-making during energy crises, where conventional economic modeling is often time-consuming and poorly suited for cross-model coordination. To overcome these limitations, the authors propose a novel large language model (LLM)-based agent architecture capable of autonomously orchestrating and integrating 16 heterogeneous economic and physical models spanning oil and gas, shipping, water, helium, fertilizer, and macroeconomic domains. The approach enables automatic input transformation, dependency scheduling, and result synthesis without generating quantitative outputs, thereby ensuring traceable, assumption-neutral analyses while allowing full analyst oversight. Evaluated over an eight-week rolling horizon across five crisis scenarios—including the hypothetical 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the system demonstrates marked improvements in multi-model coordination efficiency and policy responsiveness.

Abstract

Rigorous economic models can take months to construct, yet energy crises demand decisions from policymakers within days or even hours. Any disruption in energy markets is not isolated but rapidly disseminates through interlinked global systems. Off-the-shelf models that already exist typically focus only on limited aspects of the system and are distributed across research groups, programming languages, software architectures not designed for model integration, and incompatible formats. Integrating these models manually can take longer than the crisis itself, forcing analysts to rely on whichever models are easiest to connect and leaving consequential scenarios unexplored. Policymakers must make rapid decisions with obstructed and limited information. We show that large language models can perform the critical integration directly. The system constructs internally consistent scenarios, translates assumptions into model-specific inputs, executes existing economic and physical models in dependency order, and synthesizes outputs tailored to policymakers. The language model generates no quantitative results: every reported value is reproduced directly from an underlying model run, remains traceable to its source and is subject to analyst approval at each stage. We develop a LLM framework that coordinates 16 models of oil, natural gas, shipping, water, helium, fertilizer and macroeconomic equilibrium. The framework is applied across five scenarios to assess the 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz and refreshed weekly for eight weeks as events on the ground continued to unfold. By linking models that already exist and reading them as a suite rather than in isolation, this architecture mobilizes distributed scientific models rapidly during energy and geopolitical disruptions while keeping any single model's assumptions from driving the conclusion.

Problem

• energy crises
• heterogeneous economic models
• model integration
• rapid decision-making
• policy analysis

Innovation

• Agentic AI
• Heterogeneous Model Integration
• Large Language Models
• Energy Crisis Analysis
• Multi-scenario Orchestration