Semiparametric copula-based quantile regression for semicontinuous outcomes with application to healthcare data

📅 2026-03-14
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🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the challenge of jointly modeling the probability of zero outcomes and the heterogeneous, nonlinear effects in the positive component of semi-continuous data—characterized by a substantial mass at zero and a continuous positive part—along with their complex dependence structure. To this end, we propose the first copula-based semiparametric two-part quantile regression framework. The approach separately models the occurrence of zeros and the magnitude of positive values via quantile regression and flexibly captures their nonlinear dependence across quantiles using a copula function. Theoretical analysis establishes large-sample asymptotic properties, and simulations demonstrate superior performance over existing methods under high zero-inflation and nonlinear scenarios. An empirical application to healthcare data reveals heterogeneous and nonlinear effects of social deprivation on uncompensated and charitable care burdens.

Technology Category

Machine Learning: Calibration & Uncertainty QuantificationReasoning under Uncertainty: Relational Probabilistic ModelsConstraint Satisfaction and Optimization: Satisfiability Modulo Theories

Application Category

Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Data quality aspects of human-annotated datasetsGraph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Algorithms and analysis for incomplete, noisy, or partially observed Web-related graphsSearch and Retrieval-Augmented AI: Web learning to rank, online learning, and counterfactual learning for ranking
📝 Abstract
A semiparametric copula-based two-part quantile regression framework is developed for the analysis of semicontinuous outcomes characterized by a point mass at zero and a continuous positive component. The proposed approach models the occurrence and magnitude processes separately and links them through copula-based conditional distributions, allowing for flexible dependence structures and nonlinear covariate effects across quantiles. Large-sample properties of the resulting estimator are established, and extensive simulation studies demonstrate improved finite-sample performance relative to logistic/linear quantile regression, particularly under nonlinear dependence and substantial zero inflation. An application to healthcare data illustrates how the proposed method provides a nuanced characterization of the association between social deprivation and uncompensated and charity care burdens, revealing heterogeneous and nonlinear effects that are not captured by competing approaches.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

semicontinuous outcomes
quantile regression
zero inflation
heterogeneous effects
nonlinear dependence
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

semiparametric copula
quantile regression
semicontinuous outcomes
two-part model
nonlinear covariate effects
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