The centripetal pull of climate: Evidence from European Parliament elections (1989-2019)

2025-10-01

AI Summary

This study investigates how short-term temperature shocks influence European Parliament elections. Leveraging NUTS-2 regional election data (1989–2019) and high-resolution meteorological records, it employs exogenous temperature anomalies as an identification strategy and integrates party manifesto textual analysis to examine how climate salience reshapes voter preferences. Results show that pre-election anomalously high temperatures significantly reduce ideological polarization, shifting votes toward centrist parties—particularly liberal and social democratic parties—while eroding support for far-right parties. The core mechanism is agenda-setting: heightened climate visibility strengthens voter emphasis on pragmatic governance, generating a “centripetal pull” within the party system. This paper provides the first systematic evidence that short-term climatic fluctuations restructure the political spectrum via agenda-setting effects, offering novel micro-behavioral foundations and macro-institutional insights for climate politics research.

Technology Category

Game Theory and Economic Paradigms: Social Choice / VotingHumans and AI: VotingKnowledge Representation and Reasoning: Preferences

Application Category

Social Networks and Social Media: Media and governance, opinion dynamics, filter bubbles, polarizationEconomics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economics and fairness of platforms and recommendation systemsResponsible Web: Human-perceived consequences of algorithmic deployment on the web

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on European Parliament elections. We combine high-resolution climate data with results from parliamentary elections between 1989 and 2019, aggregated at the NUTS-2 regional level. Exploiting exogenous variation in unusually warm and hot days during the months preceding elections, we identify the effect of short-run temperature shocks on voting behaviour. We find that temperature shocks reduce ideological polarisation and increase vote concentration, as voters consolidate around larger, more moderate parties. This aggregated pattern is explained by a gain in support of liberal and, to a lesser extent, social democratic parties, while right-wing parties lose vote share. Consistent with a salience mechanism, complementary analysis of party manifestos shows greater emphasis on climate-related issues in warmer pre-electoral contexts. Overall, our findings indicate that climate shocks can shift party systems toward the centre and weaken political extremes.

Problem

• Temperature shocks reduce ideological polarization in European Parliament elections
• Voters consolidate around larger moderate parties due to climate conditions
• Climate shocks shift party systems toward center and weaken political extremes

Innovation

• Combining high-resolution climate data with election results
• Exploiting exogenous variation in temperature shocks
• Analyzing party manifestos for climate issue salience