🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the frequent misinterpretation of fluctuations in dominant eigensubspaces and scalar spectral functionals—such as the absorption ratio—in rolling covariance estimation as genuine market structural changes, when they are often artifacts of estimation noise, particularly under shrinkage. By leveraging perturbation analysis and calibrated inference, the work derives, for the first time, the first-order null distribution of eigensubspace variation under overlapping windows and establishes its invariance under rotation-equivariant shrinkage estimators. It further shows that only scale-invariant spectral functionals enjoy first-order immunity to elliptical kurtosis. To correct high-dimensional bias in the absorption ratio, a trace-preserving spiked debiased estimator is proposed. Theoretical results, supported by Davis–Kahan bounds, distribution-free confidence bands, and an estimator-aware bootstrap, are validated through simulations and successfully applied to equity data for reliable detection of true market structural shifts.
📝 Abstract
Rolling covariance estimates feed two objects that are routinely treated as market structure. The first is the dominant eigenspace, monitored through the projector movement $\widehat D_{K,t}=\|\widehat P_{K,t}-\widehat P_{K,t-1}\|_F$; the second comprises scalar spectral functionals such as the absorption ratio and the leading-eigenvalue share. Both fluctuate under estimation noise, and shrinkage changes the law of that noise, so reading their movements as structural change requires calibration. For the eigenspace, we derive a first-order null law for $\widehat D_{K,t}$ between overlapping windows that share most of their data and show that it transfers without change to rotation-equivariant shrinkage estimators. A distribution-free Davis-Kahan band gauges whether the eigenspace is identified, an estimator-aware bootstrap provides the calibrated test, and a companion power analysis gives an approximate design rule for the smallest detectable rotation. For the scalar functionals, we show that first-order immunity to elliptical kurtosis holds for scale-invariant functionals and only for them, so that one estimated scalar calibrates the projector null and the absorption-ratio and leading-share intervals across the elliptical family. In high dimensions, where shrinkage cleaning biases the absorption ratio, we give a trace-preserving spike-debiased estimator that removes the bias. The results are verified by simulation under a known population covariance; an equity-panel appendix shows the procedures as diagnostics when the population is unknown.