A multivariate Birnbaum-Saunders autoregressive moving average model with application to air pollution concentration data

2026-05-05

Abstract

Fine particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$) concentration data are positive, right-skewed series that arise naturally in environmental monitoring and are well described by the Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution. In this paper, we propose a multivariate BS autoregressive moving average (MBSARMA) model with exogenous terms for the joint analysis of correlated positive asymmetric time series. The proposed model combines the multivariate log-linear BS framework with dynamic autoregressive moving average components on the conditional location parameter of each response. We estimate the model parameters by means of the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm. The performance of the proposed conditional likelihood estimators is evaluated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study under several correlation levels and sample sizes. An application to weekly PM$_{2.5}$ pollution concentration data recorded at three monitoring stations in Santiago, Chile, obtained from the National Air Quality Information System of Chile (SINCA), is presented. The results show the good performance of the proposed methodology.

Problem

• multivariate time series
• Birnbaum-Saunders distribution
• positive skewed data
• air pollution concentration
• correlated time series

Innovation

• Multivariate Birnbaum-Saunders
• ARMA model
• EM algorithm
• Positive skewed time series
• Air pollution modeling