Covariance-Based Structural Equation Modeling in Small-Sample Settings with $p>n$

📅 2026-04-18
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🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the challenge of fitting covariance-based structural equation models when the number of variables exceeds the sample size ($p > n$), a setting in which traditional factor-based approaches fail due to singularity of the sample covariance matrix. The authors propose a novel method that decomposes the covariance structure into auto-covariance and cross-covariance components, integrating a likelihood-based feasible set with relative error constraints to achieve stable estimation in small-sample regimes. This approach enables, for the first time, covariance-based structural equation modeling in $p > n$ scenarios, substantially improving parameter estimation stability and accurately recovering the signs and directions of structural parameters. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate its superior performance, highlighting its practical utility for decision-making applications.

Technology Category

Machine Learning: Matrix & Tensor MethodsReasoning under Uncertainty: Relational Probabilistic ModelsConstraint Satisfaction and Optimization: Other Foundations of Constraint Satisfaction

Application Category

Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Algorithms and analysis for incomplete, noisy, or partially observed Web-related graphsUser Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Practical large-scale studies of user experienceWeb Mining and Content Analysis: Robustness and generalizability of Web mining methods
📝 Abstract
Factor-based Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) relies on likelihood-based estimation assuming a nonsingular sample covariance matrix, which breaks down in small-sample settings with $p>n$. To address this, we propose a novel estimation principle that reformulates the covariance structure into self-covariance and cross-covariance components. The resulting framework defines a likelihood-based feasible set combined with a relative error constraint, enabling stable estimation in small-sample settings where $p>n$ for sign and direction. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show improved stability, particularly in recovering the sign and direction of structural parameters. These results extend covariance-based SEM to small-sample settings and provide practically useful directional information for decision-making.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

Structural Equation Modeling
small-sample
p>n
covariance matrix
parameter direction
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Covariance decomposition
Small-sample SEM
p>n estimation
Relative error constraint
Directional parameter recovery
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H
Hiroki Hasegawa
Graduate School of Science and Technology, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
A
Aoba Tamura
Graduate School of Science and Technology, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Y
Yukihiko Okada
Institute of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Tsukuba Institute for Advanced Research, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Center for Artificial Intelligence Research, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan