🤖 AI Summary
Climate change foresight studies routinely overlook the role and systemic implications of information and communication technologies (ICT), including AI, IoT, and cloud computing. Method: We systematically analyze 35 future scenarios drawn from 14 prominent climate foresight studies and develop— for the first time—a dedicated ICT-oriented scenario taxonomy, integrating sociotechnical theory with a refined digital technology classification. Contribution/Results: While all scenarios implicitly assume ubiquitous ICT deployment, only a minority critically examine human–technology relations or material foundations (e.g., resource intensity, infrastructural dependencies); none anticipate paradigm-shifting ICT innovations. Crucially, systemic ICT impacts—including co-evolutionary dynamics, long-term technological trajectories, and ecological externalities—are consistently absent. Our findings expose a structural blind spot in mainstream climate scenario planning: the persistent under-theorization of ICT’s role in climate-resilient societies. We thus call for a systemic reimagining of digital technologies within climate futures frameworks.
📝 Abstract
With the climate change context, many prospective studies, generally encompassing all areas of society, imagine possible futures to expand the range of options. The role of digital technologies within these possible futures is rarely specifically targeted. Which digital technologies and methodologies do these studies envision in a world that has mitigated and adapted to climate change? In this paper, we propose a typology for scenarios to survey digital technologies and their applications in 14 prospective studies and their corresponding 35 future scenarios. Our finding is that all the scenarios consider digital technology to be present in the future. We observe that only a few of them question our relationship with digital technology and all aspects related to its materiality, and none of the general studies envision breakthroughs concerning technologies used today. Our result demonstrates the lack of a systemic view of information and communication technologies. We therefore argue for new prospective studies to envision the future of ICT.
