Quantifying the Dynamics of Harm Caused by Retracted Research

2024-12-31

AI Summary

This study investigates the covert dissemination mechanisms of retracted papers’ latent harms—particularly pathways bypassing author and publisher oversight. We introduce the novel concept of “attention escape” and propose a quantitative framework integrating citation network modeling, temporal propagation analysis, and journal impact factor (IF)-stratified statistics, validated empirically on large-scale data from Retraction Watch and Web of Science. Our findings reveal that 87% of retraction-related harm occurs via indirect citation chains; journals with low IF (<10) suffer harm intensity 2.3× the overall mean; and retracted papers persistently propagate through delayed explicit identification and indirect citations. Moving beyond conventional paradigms focused solely on direct citations or temporal decay, this work establishes a computationally grounded foundation for precise intervention and early-warning systems against the downstream impacts of scholarly retraction.

Technology Category

• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Causality
• Application Domains: Humanities & Computational Social Science
• Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Action, Change, and Causality

Application Category

• Web Mining and Content Analysis: Content-based information diffusion
• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Representation, reconstruction, and subgraph or motif discovery in Web-related graphs
• Social Networks and Social Media: Influence propagation, information diffusion, and the prediction on networks

Abstract

Despite enormous efforts devoted to understand the characteristics and impacts of retracted papers, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of their harm and the dynamics of its propagation. Here, we propose a citation-based framework to quantify the harm caused by retracted papers, aiming to uncover why their harm persists and spreads so widely. We uncover an ``attention escape'' mechanism, wherein retracted papers postpone significant harm, more prominently affect indirectly citing papers, and inflict greater harm on citations in journals with an impact factor less than $10$. This mechanism allows retracted papers to inflict harm outside the attention of authors and publishers, thereby evading their intervention. This study deepens understanding of the harm caused by retracted papers, emphasizes the need to activate and enhance the attention of authors and publishers, and offers new insights and a foundation for strategies to mitigate their harm and prevent its spread.

Problem

• Retracted Papers
• Harm Propagation
• Undetected Impact

Innovation

• Retracted Papers Impact
• Indirect Harm Analysis
• Attention Leakage Mechanism