The Aftermath of Peace: The Impact of the FARC's Ceasefire on Forced Displacement in Colombia

2025-08-28

AI Summary

This study examines the impact of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC) 2014 unilateral permanent ceasefire on internal displacement in Colombia. Using municipal-level panel data and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, the analysis innovatively combines the precise timing of the ceasefire with pre-conflict FARC geographic presence to isolate causal effects. Results show that the ceasefire significantly reduced the incidence of severe forced displacement in affected municipalities; the effect emerged progressively and persisted for at least three years. These findings provide robust evidence that effective implementation of peace agreements can substantially alleviate humanitarian crises. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically assess the humanitarian consequences of a unilateral ceasefire at a micro-geographic level, offering novel causal evidence for conflict de-escalation and displacement governance.

Technology Category

• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Causality
• Machine Learning: Causal Learning
• Humans and AI: Planning and Decision Support for Human-Machine Teams

Application Category

• Security and Privacy: Large-scale security measurements
• User Modeling, Personalization and Recommendation: Studies of user behavior, including longitudinal effects of personalized systems
• Responsible Web: Measurement, analysis, and circumvention of Web censorship

Abstract

Colombia's prolonged conflict has made the country one of the most affected by forced internal displacement (FID) in the world. This study examines the impact of the FARC's 2014 unilateral and permanent ceasefire on FID. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing of the ceasefire and the pre-conflict distribution of FARC presence across municipalities. Results show a substantial reduction in severe displacement episodes in affected areas, with effects that emerged gradually and persisted over time. These findings highlight the importance of stability and the effective implementation of peace agreements in mitigating FID and its far-reaching consequences.

Problem

• Impact of FARC ceasefire on forced displacement
• Reduction in displacement episodes in affected areas
• Importance of peace agreements for stability

Innovation

• Difference-in-differences strategy analyzing ceasefire impact
• Exploited timing and pre-conflict FARC distribution data
• Measured reduction in severe displacement episodes