🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the challenge of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite anomaly detection, which is hindered by the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality labeled data. The authors propose a multi-level weakly supervised cascaded labeling framework that integrates physical orbital dynamics, an interacting multiple model–unscented Kalman filter (IMM-UKF), and Gaussian process calibration to automatically generate 8.6 million anomaly sequences from 232 million Two-Line Element (TLE) records—without requiring ground-truth labels. A two-stage Transformer model trained on this synthetic dataset incorporates time-difference features and mean orbital element engineering, substantially enhancing detection performance. Compared to a purely rule-based approach, the IMM-UKF identifies 42.6 times more anomalies. The final model achieves 55.4% maneuver recall and 62.8% decay recall on the test set, with time-difference features contributing a 107% relative improvement in decay recall.
📝 Abstract
Detecting orbital anomalies, such as maneuvers, atmospheric decay, and attitude upsets, across the rapidly growing population of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites is a prerequisite for collision avoidance, decay forecasting, and conjunction screening. The bottleneck is not modeling capacity but labels: there is no public ground-truth corpus of orbital anomalies, manual review does not scale to approximately 10^4 active satellites, and pure rule-based detectors trade recall for precision so aggressively that they are blind to most behavioral anomalies. We present a multi-tier labeling cascade that composes three weak supervision sources of increasing fidelity: a fast physics rule set (rule_v1), an Interacting Multiple Model Unscented Kalman Filter (IMM-UKF) bank, and a supplemental-element calibration step (supGP), to produce labels at a scale unavailable from any single source. Applied to 232M Two-Line Element (TLE) records spanning 60 years, the cascade yields 8.6M labeled sequences of length 50 (430M timesteps) over 11 features that include explicit time encoding and full mean-element state. On overlapping satellites, IMM-UKF surfaces 42.6x more anomalies than rule_v1 alone. We train a 6.5M-parameter Transformer in two stages, achieving a maneuver recall of 55.4% and decay recall of 62.8% on a held-out test set. An ablation on the time-delta feature alone yields a 107% relative improvement in decay recall. We frame the resulting model as a high-recall triage classifier whose role is to surface candidate events for downstream filtering, not to issue final attributions, and discuss the path toward a Neural-ODE-based orbital world model.