Vessel Trajectory Prediction using COLREGs-aware Optimal Planning

2026-07-17

AI Summary

This study addresses the challenge of simultaneously ensuring compliance with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs) and achieving real-time performance in maritime vessel trajectory prediction. To this end, the authors propose an efficient rule-constrained prediction method that first employs A* search to generate a collision-free initial trajectory around static obstacles as a warm start, followed by numerical optimization that explicitly embeds COLREGs constraints. The approach requires only the current positions, velocities, and Automatic Identification System (AIS)-derived destination information of surrounding vessels, significantly reducing reliance on extensive historical trajectory data. Compared to conventional data-intensive methods, the proposed framework enhances both computational efficiency and regulatory compliance, demonstrating strong predictive accuracy and feasibility in realistic scenarios constructed from real-world AIS data.

Abstract

This paper presents a trajectory prediction method for marine vessels based on optimal planning. Crude initial trajectories respecting static obstacles are first generated using A*-search to provide a feasible warm start. In the second step, a numerical optimizer is used to ensure COLREG compliance. The prediction problem is posed as sequential trajectory planning from the perspective of each surrounding vessel, requiring only their current positions, velocities, and intended destinations as input. As the latter is included in AIS messages, this enables faster predictions than learning-based methods that typically require longer data histories. The proposed method is validated using real-world scenarios constructed from AIS data.

Problem

• Vessel Trajectory Prediction
• COLREGs compliance
• AIS data
• Maritime navigation
• Optimal planning

Innovation

• COLREGs-aware planning
• vessel trajectory prediction
• A*-search warm start
• numerical optimization
• AIS-based prediction