Emotional driving: Reference-dependent emotions and risky driving behavior after sporting events

2026-06-17

AI Summary

This study investigates whether emotions triggered by major sporting event outcomes lead to risky driving behavior among spectators. Leveraging high spatiotemporal resolution traffic speed and crash data from areas within 3 kilometers of five stadiums in Florida during 2015–2019, and employing an event study design, the paper applies reference-dependent emotion theory—novelly—to real-world driving behavior. The findings reveal that following National Football League (NFL) games in which the home team loses under high-stakes, uncertain conditions, average vehicle speeds increase significantly by up to 3 mph within one hour post-game, markedly exceeding typical game-day effects. In contrast, National Basketball Association (NBA) games show no such impact. These results provide new evidence on short-term, emotion-driven risk-taking in driving, bridging behavioral economics and traffic safety research.

Abstract

Using average vehicle speed data in 10-minute increments at the Traffic Message Channel (TMC) location level, along with precise crash timing and location information, we analyze driving behavior around five Florida stadiums before and after NFL and NBA regular season games from 2015 to 2019. We find no evidence of emotional driving following NBA games, but strong and consistent effects following NFL games, concentrated in predicted-close games that end in disappointing home-team losses -- combining high pre-game suspense with negative outcome valence. These games are associated with significant increases in average vehicle speed within 3 km of stadiums during the first post-game hour, dissipating with increasing time and distance from the stadium. Average vehicle speed increases by up to 3 mph relative to predicted-close games that ended in a win -- an effect several times larger than the typical game day versus non-game day speed differential. Overall, our results highlight how the combination of sustained suspense and negative outcome valence in close sporting contests can spill over into risky post-game driving behavior, underscoring the behavioral and public safety implications of affective cues in large-scale sporting events.

Problem

• emotional driving
• risky driving behavior
• sporting events
• affective cues
• vehicle speed

Innovation

• emotional driving
• reference-dependent emotions
• risky driving behavior
• sports-induced affect
• traffic safety