🤖 AI Summary
Traditional disaster modeling often overlooks the system-specific responses of physical infrastructure to climate hazards, leading to biased risk assessments. This study proposes an infrastructure-oriented, system-specific hazard modeling framework that explicitly links hazard definitions to the unique characteristics of individual infrastructure systems, thereby capturing their differential hazard perceptions. By integrating climate data with infrastructure-specific attributes, a threshold-based probabilistic hazard model generates time-varying hazard maps under changing climatic conditions. The approach enables customized exposure assessments across diverse infrastructure types and hazard scenarios, demonstrating both practical utility and scalability for high-resolution risk modeling.
📝 Abstract
This paper addresses the definition and modeling of hazards in the context of physical systems, particularly infrastructures, that are affected by climate change. The paper highlights that hazards are system-dependent, meaning what constitutes a hazard for one system (e.g., humans) may not be the same for another (e.g., infrastructures). The paper also highlights that extreme intensity distribution may evolve in a region without necessarily constituting a hazard for a specific system. These distinctions are crucial for risk assessment and adaptation strategies in a changing climate. The paper implements a simple threshold-based hazard model -Boolean Hazard Model with Probability -to focus exclusively on system-specific hazard definition in climatechange context. Use cases illustrate how this approach adapts to different systems and hazard types. The model produces time-evolving hazard maps, delivering hazard data tailored to both hazard type and infrastructure characteristics. The model provides hazard data tailored to specific hazard types and physical systems, with a focus on infrastructure. The use cases demonstrate their practical value and potential for broader application in multi-infrastructure and multi-hazard exposure modeling.