Hybrid epidemic simulation framework coupling equation-based and individual-based models

2026-09-28

AI Summary

This study addresses how mass gatherings influence the spatial propagation of urban epidemics. To this end, it proposes a multiscale coupling framework that integrates equation-based macroscopic models with individual-based microscopic models, embedding transient gathering events into Madrid’s long-term commuting network dynamics for hybrid simulation. The research quantifies the amplification effect of mass gatherings on epidemic spread, revealing that such events significantly accelerate viral spatial diffusion. Furthermore, it demonstrates that controlling transmission nodes associated with gatherings can effectively delay citywide epidemic progression. By innovatively bridging transient aggregation events with long-term urban dynamics, this work provides a scientific basis for formulating precise epidemic prevention strategies for large-scale public events.

Abstract

Mass gathering events like concerts, sports matches, and festivals bring many people into close contact within a short period, creating localized bursts of infection that can shape epidemic outcomes across an entire city. To evaluate how these transient transmission events translate into broader urban impacts, we developed a simulation model linking event-scale contact dynamics with citywide commuting networks. Using Madrid, Spain, as a case study, we compared several types of gatherings and examined how their effects changed under different levels of disease transmissibility. We found that mass gatherings consistently amplified outbreak magnitude, accelerated progression, advanced district-level arrival times, and synchronized spatial spread. Remarkably, while the initial seed size generated at the event accounted for much of this acceleration, post-event transmission conditions provided complementary predictive signal regarding invasion timing. These findings demonstrate that mitigating transmission during mass gatherings can yield downstream public health benefits by delaying broader spatial spread. More generally, this multiscale framework offers a tool to evaluate how temporary, localized contact shifts produce longer-lasting consequences for urban populations.

Problem

• mass gatherings
• epidemic simulation
• urban transmission dynamics
• multiscale modeling
• spatial spread

Innovation

• Hybrid epidemic simulation
• Equation-based models
• Individual-based models
• Multiscale framework
• Mass gatherings