Betting Against Integrity: Identifying Match-Fixing Through In-Play Market Dynamics

2026-05-28

AI Summary

This study addresses the heightened risk of match-fixing associated with the expansion of football betting markets by proposing a novel anomaly detection method based on high-frequency, real-time betting data. The approach employs a state-space model to characterize normal betting dynamics and integrates match-specific features to predict the conditional expected betting volume, enabling fine-grained identification of suspicious betting intervals during live matches. By uniquely combining state-space modeling with real-time betting streams and leveraging outlier detection techniques from statistical learning, the method successfully uncovers anomalous betting patterns in multiple Serie B matches. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of this framework for early-warning detection of potential match-fixing activities.

Abstract

Match-fixing undermines the integrity of sport by eroding public trust and threatening the financial sustainability of clubs and leagues. The global expansion of sports betting markets has created new incentives and opportunities for manipulation, calling for rigorous, data-driven monitoring tools. Football, which accounts for the largest share of global betting turnover, remains particularly exposed: integrity reports continue to flag several suspicious matches, with past scandals in Italy and Turkey underlining the problem's persistence. This study uses high-frequency live-betting data from the Italian Serie B (2018/19-2020/21) to explore statistical approaches for detecting abnormal betting behaviour. A state-space modelling framework is employed to describe standard betting market dynamics and to predict expected betting volumes conditional on match characteristics. Deviations from these expectations can then be analysed using outlier detection techniques to identify potentially suspicious periods. The results demonstrate how statistical modelling can contribute to the early identification of irregular betting patterns, thereby supporting integrity assurance in live sports betting markets.

Problem

• match-fixing
• sports integrity
• betting market
• anomaly detection
• football

Innovation

• state-space modelling
• in-play betting
• outlier detection
• match-fixing detection
• sports integrity