The Uncertain Policy Price of Scaling Direct Air Capture

2026-03-19

AI Summary

This study addresses the high technological, economic, and policy uncertainties surrounding the large-scale deployment of Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS)—factors often overlooked in current climate pathways. For the first time, a detailed process-based integrated assessment model is coupled with a novel global sensitivity analysis algorithm to quantify uncertainty across multidimensional drivers through Monte Carlo simulations and parameter perturbations. The results reveal that DACCS deployment follows a heavy-tailed distribution, with only a 4–6% probability of achieving gigatonne-scale CO₂ removal by mid-century. Sustained subsidies of $200–330 per tonne over several decades—amounting to public expenditures of $0.9–3 trillion—are required, and economic viability is attainable only under strong synergistic climate mitigation policies.

Technology Category

• Reasoning under Uncertainty: Stochastic Optimization
• Planning, Routing, and Scheduling: Scheduling under Uncertainty
• Multiagent Systems: Multiagent Systems under Uncertainty

Application Category

• Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economic ramifications for generative AI infrastructure and applications
• Security and Privacy: Large-scale security measurements
• Graph Algorithms and Modeling for the Web: Efficient manipulation of static and dynamic Web-related graphs

Abstract

Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is a promising CO2 removal technology, but its deployment at scale remains speculative. Yet, its technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties have often been overlooked in mitigation pathways. This paper conducts the first uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of DACCS on technological, market, financial and public support drivers, using a detailed-process Integrated Assessment Model and newly developed sensitivity algorithms. We find that DACCS deployment exhibits a fat-tailed distribution: most scenarios show modest technology uptake, but there is a small but non-zero probability (4-6%) of achieving gigaton-scale removals by mid-century. Scaling DACCS to gigaton levels requires subsidies that always exceed 200-330 USD/tCO2 and are sustained for decades, resulting in a public support programme of 900-3000 USD Billions. Such an effort pays back by mid-century, but only if accompanied by strong emission reduction policies. These findings highlight the critical role of climate policies in enabling a robust and economically sustainable CO2 removal strategy.

Problem

• Direct Air Capture
• CO2 removal
• policy uncertainty
• climate mitigation
• scalability

Innovation

• Direct Air Capture
• Uncertainty Quantification
• Global Sensitivity Analysis
• Integrated Assessment Model
• Carbon Dioxide Removal