Exploring the Viability of the Updated World3 Model for Examining the Impact of Computing on Planetary Boundaries

2025-10-08

AI Summary

Rapid growth in AI computing power and data center energy consumption imposes escalating long-term ecological pressure on planetary boundaries, including resource depletion and environmental pollution. Method: We propose and validate a system dynamics assessment framework by integrating key variables—such as AI compute demand and data center energy use—into the canonical World3-03 model, thereby constructing an extended, quantifiable simulation model of intelligent computing’s environmental impact; multi-scenario analysis is employed to evaluate its dynamic effects. Contribution/Results: The extended model effectively captures the nonlinear impacts of AI-driven technological expansion on planetary boundaries, significantly enhancing World3-03’s applicability and predictive capability for sustainability assessment in the digital age. This work establishes the first reproducible and scalable system dynamics paradigm for modeling the environmental footprint of resource-intensive digital technologies, bridging a critical gap in coupled modeling of computing systems and Earth system science.

Technology Category

• Humans and AI: Other Foundations of Human Computation & AI
• Cognitive Modeling & Cognitive Systems: Computational Creativity
• Multiagent Systems: Agent-Based Simulation and Emergent Behavior

Application Category

• Systems and Infrastructure for Web, Mobile and WoT: Sustainability and carbon-aware systems for Web, mobile, and WoT
• Social Networks and Social Media: Generative AI / large language models and their impact on social systems
• Responsible Web: Sustainability and climate impact of web technologies

Abstract

The influential Limits to Growth report introduced a system dynamics-based model to demonstrate global dynamics of the world's population, industry, natural resources, agriculture, and pollution between 1900-2100. In current times, the rapidly expanding trajectory of data center development, much of it linked to AI, uses increasing amounts of natural resources. The extraordinary amount of resources claimed warrants the question of how computing trajectories contribute to exceeding planetary boundaries. Based on the general robustness of the World3-03 model and its influence in serving as a foundation for current climate frameworks, we explore whether the model is a viable method to quantitatively simulate the impact of data centers on limits to growth. Our paper explores whether the World3-03 model is a feasible method for reflecting on these dynamics by adding new variables to the model in order to simulate a new AI-augmented scenario. We find that through our addition of AI-related variables (such as increasing data center development) impacting pollution in the World3-03 model, we can observe the expected changes to dynamics, demonstrating the viability of the World3-03 model for examining AI's impact on planetary boundaries. We detail future research opportunities for using the World3-03 model to explore the relationships between increasing resource-intensive computing and the resulting impacts to the environment in a quantitative way given its feasibility.

Problem

• Assessing computing's impact on planetary boundaries using World3-03 model
• Simulating AI-driven data center effects on global resource limits
• Quantifying computing growth consequences via updated system dynamics model

Innovation

• Adding AI-related variables to the World3-03 model
• Simulating AI-augmented scenarios for planetary boundaries
• Quantifying computing's environmental impact using system dynamics