The Plausibility Trap: Using Probabilistic Engines for Deterministic Tasks

📅 2026-01-21
📈 Citations: 0
✨ Influential: 0
📄 PDF
🤖 AI Summary
This study addresses the prevalent misuse of generative AI in tasks that could be efficiently solved by deterministic methods, leading to substantial resource waste and the risk of “algorithmic flattery.” Introducing the novel concept of the “reasonableness trap,” the work quantifies this misapplication through microbenchmarks and case studies in domains such as OCR and fact-checking, revealing approximately 6.5× higher latency overhead and reduced reliability. To mitigate this issue, the authors propose a tool selection engineering framework alongside a deterministic–probabilistic decision matrix, offering developers systematic guidance for appropriate technology choice. The paper further advocates integrating digital literacy education with the critical competency of discerning when not to deploy AI, emphasizing judicious tool adoption over default reliance on generative models.

Technology Category

Philosophy and Ethics of AI: Artificial General IntelligenceSearch and Optimization: Metareasoning and MetaheuristicsHumans and AI: Other Foundations of Human Computation & AI

Application Category

Economics, Online Markets and Human Computation: Economic ramifications for generative AI infrastructure and applicationsResponsible Web: Human-perceived consequences of algorithmic deployment on the webSocial Networks and Social Media: Generative AI / large language models and their impact on social systems
📝 Abstract
The ubiquity of Large Language Models (LLMs) is driving a paradigm shift where user convenience supersedes computational efficiency. This article defines the"Plausibility Trap": a phenomenon where individuals with access to Artificial Intelligence (AI) models deploy expensive probabilistic engines for simple deterministic tasks-such as Optical Character Recognition (OCR) or basic verification-resulting in significant resource waste. Through micro-benchmarks and case studies on OCR and fact-checking, we quantify the"efficiency tax"-demonstrating a ~6.5x latency penalty-and the risks of algorithmic sycophancy. To counter this, we introduce Tool Selection Engineering and the Deterministic-Probabilistic Decision Matrix, a framework to help developers determine when to use Generative AI and, crucially, when to avoid it. We argue for a curriculum shift, emphasizing that true digital literacy relies not only in knowing how to use Generative AI, but also on knowing when not to use it.
Problem

Research questions and friction points this paper is trying to address.

Plausibility Trap
Large Language Models
deterministic tasks
resource waste
algorithmic sycophancy
Innovation

Methods, ideas, or system contributions that make the work stand out.

Plausibility Trap
Tool Selection Engineering
Deterministic-Probabilistic Decision Matrix
Generative AI Efficiency
Algorithmic Sycophancy
I
Ivan Carrera
Laboratorio de Ciencia de Datos ADA, Departamento de Informática y Ciencias de la Computación, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, 170508, Ecuador
D
Daniel Maldonado-Ruiz
Facultad de Ingeniería en Sistemas, Electrónica e Industrial, Universidad Técnica de Ambato, Ambato, 180206, Ecuador